Disinformation is rapidly becoming one of the biggest challenges facing democracy in the United States. Researchers, technologists, and political scientists are sounding the alarm about the convergence of events that are paving the way for the spread of propaganda, falsehoods, and conspiracy theories, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.
The Perfect Storm
As the world gears up for an eventful year of elections across multiple countries, including the United States, the conditions are ripe for the proliferation of disinformation. Former President Donald Trump and his allies have already demonstrated the influence they can wield through disinformation campaigns. The rise of artificial intelligence technology, the reduction of efforts to combat misinformation on social media platforms, and the chilling effect on disinformation research all contribute to the increasing threat.
Claire Wardle, co-director of Brown University’s Information Futures Lab, who focuses on misinformation and elections, acknowledges the stark contrast between the upcoming election and previous ones. After a tumultuous year marked by a pandemic, an insurrection, and a solidification of beliefs that the election was stolen, the landscape has dramatically shifted.
The Spectrum of Disinformation
The impact of disinformation falls on a spectrum. While research suggests that it may have limited direct effects on voting choices, when disseminated by political elites, it can shape people’s views on critical issues. Disinformation can also provide false evidence to support claims that undermine democracy and public health. For example, it can fuel movements that incite violence against institutions like Congress or discourage vaccination efforts.
Addressing this enormous threat requires a multi-faceted approach: the revival of local news outlets, the implementation of information literacy programs, and the enactment of meaningful legislation to regulate social media platforms, among other strategies. Simply tackling disinformation alone won’t be enough, as the events of January 6th, 2021, demonstrated the real-world consequences of this growing problem.
Primed for Disinformation
Although the impact of disinformation is well-documented, the willingness of certain media networks and individuals to promote it in the face of potential consequences remains to be seen. However, right-wing media outlets, both established ones and newcomers, have already indicated their eagerness to contribute to the spread of disinformation during the upcoming election.
A.J. Bauer, an assistant journalism professor at the University of Alabama, who studies conservative media, explains that right-wing media outlets recognize the demand for pro-Trump content and conspiracy theories. Additionally, hyperpartisan local news organizations may amplify these claims, acting as fodder for larger, national conspiracy theories.
Real Stakes
It’s not just the voters who are susceptible to disinformation; state lawmakers, election officials, and poll workers also play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes. A movement working at the local level, fueled by election denialism and misinformation from the far right, poses a significant threat to the upcoming election. These individuals have the power to influence how people vote, how votes are counted, and whether or not they are certified.
While the Capitol breach on January 6th, 2021, was the most visible example of political extremism turning into real-world violence, similar trends were observed at state capitols and during Covid lockdown protests throughout 2020. Experts worry that this pattern will continue, with voter vigilantism becoming an emerging tactic in the upcoming election.
Old Lies, New Tech
Although the falsehoods remain similar, the technology used to propagate disinformation has advanced significantly. Artificial intelligence has revolutionized the creation of propaganda, enabling the production of deepfakes and other manipulated media. The World Economic Forum has identified misinformation and disinformation generated by AI as a top global risk, surpassing climate change and war.
Scammers have already found success with deepfakes, particularly in the form of AI-generated videos featuring celebrities endorsing products. While AI is increasingly being used in campaign ads, the most significant threat lies in its potential to create personalized disinformation that appears authentic. This makes it harder for social media platforms to detect and moderate, as it can infiltrate insular communities.
Unfortunately, instead of focusing on developing new tools to combat disinformation, social media platforms have deprioritized efforts to curb viral falsehoods. The reduction in content moderation teams and the lack of transparency in platform algorithms reinforce concerns that platforms are not doing enough to prevent the spread of election disinformation.
Who’s Watching?
One of the biggest challenges in combating disinformation during the 2024 election cycle is the fragmentation of the social media landscape. Alternative platforms such as Substack, Telegram, Threads, and Rumble have become spaces for political actors and the dissemination of extreme content. Additionally, conservative activists have launched campaigns targeting researchers, tech companies, and journalists who expose disinformation, creating a chilling effect on new research.
The lack of transparency from social media companies further compounds the problem. The algorithms that determine content visibility remain a black box, and the inability to monitor platforms in real-time hinders fact-checking efforts. This delay allows disinformation to gain a head start and poses a threat to national security, safety, and voting rights.
Ultimately, the spread of disinformation worsens partisan divides and erodes public trust. Joshua Tucker, co-director of New York University’s Center for Social Media and Politics, highlights the indirect effects of disinformation: the loss of confidence in journalism and the belief that objective truth no longer exists. The upcoming wave of disinformation has the potential to be even more damaging than we anticipate.