Here’s a behind-the-scenes look at how NBC News determines election results and answers some frequently asked questions.
How NBC News Projects Race Outcomes
Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk utilizes exit poll data to determine if uncompetitive races can be called. Most races are determined based on precinct- and county-level vote returns, taking into account the differences between early and Election Day votes. In closely contested races, careful analysis of the remaining uncounted votes plays a crucial role. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is confident about the winning candidate.
NBC News refrains from declaring a winner until after the last scheduled poll-closing time in a state.
Decision Desk Calls and Characterizations
NBC News provides several key calls and characterizations on election night:
- Too early to call: This is used when the statistical standards necessary to project a race are yet to be met or when there isn’t enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
- Too close to call: This characterization is used when the expected margin between the candidates is less than 5 percentage points, but it is only used when there’s statistical confidence of a close race.
- Projected winner: NBC News makes a projection that a specific candidate will win the race.
NBC News and the National Election Pool (NEP)
NBC News is part of the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium that includes major news networks like ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC. The NEP collaborates with Edison Research, a research firm, to collect comprehensive election data and exit poll data. The NEP licenses this data to various news outlets, including Reuters.
Vote Counting and Data Gathering
Data reporters across the country collect raw vote results on a county-by-county basis. They gather information from local election officials, state and county vote computer feeds, and websites. The collected data is then verified for accuracy.
The Importance of Exit Polls
Exit polls are surveys of voters conducted as they leave their polling places. By using probability-based sampling methods, these polls provide insights into the choices made by real voters. The exit poll includes interviews with in-person early voters, as well as telephone surveys of early and absentee voters.
Steps to Gather and Report Election Data
- Data Collection: On Election Day, data reporters and interviewers collect results for statewide races, ballot measures, and House races. They also conduct in-person national and state exit polls, gathering county- and precinct-level votes.
- Multiple Sources: Data is collected from multiple sources throughout Election Day. Reporters and interviewers provide timely updates by calling in results. Additionally, data is collected from state and county websites and feeds.
- Accuracy Checks: Vote results undergo rigorous checking and verification. Quality control includes comparing data consistency across sources and comparing turnout to past election results. Votes that fail quality control are reviewed by senior team members.
- Independent Analysis: NBC News independently analyzes vote data and exit poll data using proprietary statistical models. A team of experts in data analytics, polling, election administration, and political science interpret the results to make projections.
- Timely Projections: Election Day vote data is made available as quickly as possible. NBC News calls races as soon as the Decision Desk is confident in the projections, while vote counting continues in some states for multiple days.
For more details, visit the NBC News article.
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