It’s the dreaded rematch that nobody seems excited about. Yet, with just under 300 days left until Election Day, it looks like Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the contenders for the presidency once again. Whether we like it or not, this seems to be the reality we’re facing.
As we process this information, it’s worth considering which stage of grief we find ourselves in. Are we still in denial, unable to accept that these are our choices? Maybe we’re angry about this potential matchup. Or perhaps we’re like some centrist donors, desperately searching for a third option to bargain our way out of this situation. It’s even possible that we’ve given up on politics altogether due to the depression caused by this choice.
On the other hand, there are two camps eager for acceptance: the Trump and Biden campaigns. However, outside of these two entities, there’s a sense of hesitation and concern within both parties about going to battle with these two aging and unpopular leaders once again.
This brings me to the point of using the stages of grief to describe this likely showdown in the fall. While it may seem inevitable that we’ll witness Biden vs. Trump II, there are still major donors and elite opinion leaders who aren’t quite ready to accept this as the only outcome.
Moreover, many voters, especially those who fall somewhere between the two major parties, yearn for another option. They hope for a viable alternative either within their own party or from an external source.
With all this in mind, it’s clear that the nation is still in the bargaining stage, and rightly so. After all, it’s only January. Just to put things into perspective, by this time in the 1992 campaign cycle, Ross Perot hadn’t even started collecting petition signatures to run as a third-party candidate.
Before we entertain the inevitable third-party trial balloons that will soon emerge, we must go through the official acceptance phase of the two nomination battles. There are three distinct groups who are still in the bargaining stage: the third-party dreamers, Democrats who wish for a younger nominee, and non-MAGA Republicans who aspire for a more electable candidate.
On the Democratic side, the exceptional results of the “write-in Joe Biden” campaign in New Hampshire should dispel any remaining doubts within the party. Although Rep. Dean Phillips, who had the state to himself, couldn’t gain much traction, it was a realization for many Democratic voters that they both wish Biden was younger and believe he deserves to stay in the race.
Biden’s primary victory in New Hampshire successfully prevented a more complicated pressure point for him within his party. However, Michigan, with its large Arab American population critical of the president’s support for Israel, could pose a minor challenge for Biden. Yet, it remains uncertain whether Phillips is the candidate that can rally these voters against Biden, given their shared stance on Israel.
As we gauge Michigan’s importance and Biden’s poll numbers, it’s worth considering if the rise of Trump and the improving economy will ever boost Biden’s prospects.
On the Republican side, while Nikki Haley doesn’t have much chance of securing the nomination, she faces a crucial decision regarding her future in American politics. Observing Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Doug Burgum’s transformation from Trump critics to endorsers, it’s clear they both opted to align themselves with the current state of the GOP, fueled by Trump and Trumpism.
The question then arises: What future does Haley envision for herself in American politics? This also extends to the donors who support her. In 2016, Sen. Ted Cruz made a bet that Trump wouldn’t win the general election, positioning himself as the frontrunner for 2020. Unfortunately for Cruz, that gamble didn’t pay off, and he has since tried to regain favor with the Trump movement.
The question now is whether Haley has the fortitude to embark on a similar journey, becoming a credible advocate for a different Republican Party. While she may face challenges due to her past hesitations in criticizing Trump, this presents an opportunity for her to champion a post-Trump GOP that rejects Trumpism itself. However, it’s a lonely campaign to undertake, as most elected Republicans will pressure her to withdraw, even if some secretly hope for her success.
Moving on to the third-party dreamers, there’s been much speculation about the potential for a third party given the dissatisfaction with both major parties. While former governors or retiring senators may not be the solution frustrated voters seek, an ideal candidate could arise from a different arena outside of electoral politics.
Arnold Schwarzenegger comes to mind as someone with the right mix of political experience, celebrity status, and independence to be considered a viable candidate. Although he spent most of his adult life as a Republican, his governance in California showcased a different approach, earning him bipartisan appeal. Additionally, Schwarzenegger’s personal history and international perspective can effectively address the importance of democracy and the threat of autocracy.
While it’s true that the Constitution requires the president to be a natural-born citizen, Schwarzenegger’s candidacy could potentially avoid legal challenges until after being elected. This would make his choice of running mate even more crucial.
Ultimately, the likelihood of a Biden vs. Trump matchup in the general election seems strong. However, in the world of politics, unexpected twists are not uncommon. As we’ve witnessed in the past, the conventional wisdom can be overturned.
In conclusion, we’re currently passing through the stages of grief as we come to terms with the potential candidates for the upcoming presidential election. While it may seem like a Biden vs. Trump scenario is inevitable, we mustn’t dismiss the slim chance of other outcomes. The months ahead will reveal whether we navigate through acceptance or if unexpected developments change the course of this election.