More Americans, including Republicans, are acknowledging the reality of climate change. However, there is still a lack of consensus on the causes and appropriate actions needed to address the issue. Recent national surveys conducted by Yale University revealed significant shifts in public opinion on global warming, with conservative states showing some of the most notable upward trends.
The Yale Program on Climate Change Communication found that Americans are more concerned about climate change now compared to a decade ago. Support for renewable energy has also grown over time. However, the surveys highlighted the ongoing discrepancies in discussions about climate change and the strong divisions regarding potential solutions.
A couple watches the sunset in Kansas City, Mo., as triple-digit heat indexes continued in the Midwest on Aug. 20. (Charlie Riedel / AP)
These surveys are especially relevant as the country approaches a presidential election this year. They offer insights into the priorities voters have for the candidates. The findings were released after experiencing the hottest year in recorded history marked by dangerous heat waves, intense storms, and historic wildfires.
Jennifer Marlon, a senior research scientist at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, who led the research, pointed out that belief in climate change and perceptions of its risks have consistently risen in most states, even in Republican strongholds. For example, in Texas and North Carolina, the percentage of adults who believe in global warming has risen to the national average of 72% in 2023 from 60% in 2010. Similarly, in Indiana, the figure increased to 65% in 2023 from 55% in 2010.
However, while there is scientific consensus that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, are the primary cause of climate change, only 58% of Americans across the country agree with this conclusion. Marlon expressed concern over the confusion that still exists among many Americans regarding the scientific consensus.
Interestingly, results showed that a majority of Americans in almost all states, excluding Indiana, Kentucky, North Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Wyoming, attribute global warming mostly to human activities. However, many states still lag behind the national average. Despite this, there has been an overall upward trend in understanding climate change even in states where the majority of the public does not recognize the scientific consensus. For instance, in Wyoming, the percentage of the public aware that most scientists agree on global warming’s occurrence increased from less than 30% in 2010 to 44% in 2023.
Support for various climate policies, such as tax rebates for solar panels and energy-efficient vehicles, has also increased among Americans. There are variations between states, but Marlon highlighted surprising results, like an increase in support for regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant in Idaho, from 67% in 2010 to 71% in 2023.
The Yale surveys align with other research that has explored the importance of climate change to voters across the country. For example, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center revealed that two-thirds of adults in the U.S. prioritize the development of renewable energy sources. However, Americans generally remain hesitant to entirely phase out the use of oil, coal, and natural gas.
Although there may be deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans on climate change, research indicates that global warming is a concern for voters regardless of party affiliation. A recent study by the University of Colorado Boulder found that around two-thirds of voters consider climate change an important issue. This figure aligns with the results of NBC News exit polls, where 77% of voters concerned about climate change voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
Matthew Burgess, an assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder, suggests that climate change may have become a “litmus test” issue for some voters. Even if climate change is not their top priority, the overwhelming scientific evidence may lead voters to question the credibility of candidates who deny the issue. Burgess estimates that around 2.4 million voters may have chosen Biden over Donald Trump in 2020 primarily due to climate change concerns.
While former President Trump denied climate science, calling global warming a “hoax,” Nikki Haley, currently running as a Republican presidential candidate, acknowledges the reality of climate change but emphasizes her role in the U.S.’s withdrawal from the 2015 Paris climate agreement during her time as U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration.
The impact of these data points on the upcoming presidential election remains uncertain. Jennifer Marlon stated that predicting the outcome is challenging. However, it is evident that addressing climate change is crucial, and the public’s increasing awareness and concern indicate that the issue will be a priority for voters.