In recent times, a network of militant groups known as the “Axis of Resistance,” backed by Iran, has been launching attacks against Israel, the United States, and international shipping. These attacks, according to the militants, are a protest against Israel’s war and in support of the Palestinians. At the same time, Iran-backed militants have been escalating their attacks on American forces in the Middle East. As a response, President Joe Biden vowed a forceful, multi-stage response to these attacks, while also aiming to avoid direct war with Iran.
Last Friday, President Biden initiated a series of strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria. These targets were linked to Iranian militias or Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is providing support to President Bashar Assad in Syria. The operation was highly anticipated, giving Iranian military commanders and their allies enough time to take precautions. Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims II, director of operations of the Joint Staff, clarified that the purpose of these strikes was to send a signal to those who mean harm to Americans.
Despite some analysts’ reservations, these strikes are seen as a step up in the U.S. efforts at deterrence. The strikes differed in terms of power, number of targets, and the use of airstrikes, cyber operations, and potentially covert actions. However, the strategic value of the targets hit remains unclear. Experts suggest that providing advance warning of the strikes was a way to deliver a limited blow to Iran and its proxies without triggering an escalation of the conflict, especially in Iraq.
Iraq’s response to the strikes was severe, sparking a verbal conflict between Washington and Baghdad. Although Iraq denied being informed in advance, the U.S. administration official clarified that it was not a substantial heads-up, given Iraq’s relationship with Iranian-backed militias. The U.S. respects Iraq’s concerns but emphasizes that hosting these Iranian groups on Iraqi soil is contradictory to expressing those concerns.
The complex relationship between Iraq and Iran further complicates the situation. Iraq is politically dependent on powerful Iran-backed militias based within its borders but also hosts American troops. One of the most powerful of these militias, Kataib Hezbollah, is implicated in the recent deadly attack against U.S. forces in Jordan. They initially paused attacks against Americans to avoid embarrassing the Iraqi government, which called for calm. However, the militants hinted that their restraint might change in the future, issuing a warning that the Americans will have unforgettable days throughout history.
The current situation calls for careful navigation in order to prevent further escalation. President Biden’s strikes on Iran are a clear message indicating a strong stance against those who pose a threat to American lives. It remains to be seen how Iran and its proxies will respond to these strikes and whether the risk of direct war can be effectively avoided.
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