Joe Biden’s path to the Democratic presidential nomination begins with the South Carolina primary, where the former vice president is poised to secure a resounding victory. This crucial contest marks the official start of the party’s primary season, and Biden is the overwhelming favorite to triumph over his relatively weak opponents: U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Marianne Williamson, the author who ran unsuccessfully in 2020. Early voting in South Carolina commenced on January 22, with polls closing at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Biden enjoys strong support from South Carolina’s Democratic establishment, particularly Rep. James Clyburn, a respected figure in Congress and a leader in the Black community. The state holds significant symbolism for Biden. Four years ago, South Carolina rescued his faltering campaign, propelling him towards victory in the primary and ultimately securing the nomination. Now, he hopes for an emphatic win in South Carolina, which could energize his candidacy and shift the focus away from his relatively low standing in public opinion polls.
For Biden, winning over Black voters is paramount in South Carolina. They make up the majority of the state’s Democratic electorate, and Biden has been emphasizing his commitment to improving their lives. He frequently mentions his administration’s support for historically Black colleges and his efforts to address the burden of student loan debt. Remarkably, Biden rarely mentions his primary opponents, instead focusing on his main rival, former President Donald Trump.
The relationship between South Carolina and Biden is a reciprocal one. When his 2020 campaign seemed destined to falter after losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden’s fortunes were revived by Clyburn’s crucial endorsement and his subsequent victory in the South Carolina primary. South Carolinians recognize Biden’s role in allowing their state to hold the nation’s first official contest, as the Democratic National Committee designated South Carolina as the primary’s starting point due to the state’s racial diversity, differing from Iowa and New Hampshire’s predominantly white voting population.
This election year brings an intriguing twist to South Carolina’s primary, with the state’s Republican primary on February 24 featuring a showdown between Trump and Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor. Under South Carolina’s open primary system, Democrats are free to vote in the Republican primary, potentially influencing the outcome. Speculation has arisen that some Democrats might cross over and support Haley in an effort to impede Trump’s march towards the nomination.
However, South Carolina Democrats face a dilemma. On one hand, they want a substantial turnout to justify the party’s decision to promote South Carolina to the front of the primary line. A lackluster turnout could reopen the debate about which state should lead the primaries in the future. Rep. Clyburn vocalized his hope for a strong showing from Democratic voters, as he cast his early vote in the state primary. Despite chatter about strategic voting for Haley in the Republican primary, Clyburn expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of such tactics.
As the South Carolina primary unfolds, Biden’s future as the Democratic nominee seems increasingly secure. Nonetheless, the battle between Trump and Haley in the state’s Republican primary promises to deliver its own political theater. For now, all eyes are on South Carolina, where Biden is expected to notch a significant victory and set the stage for the rest of the primary season.
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