Despite a growing economy and an uncontested nomination from his party, President Joe Biden is facing a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate as he heads towards re-election, according to a recent national NBC News poll.
Biden Trails Trump on Key Issues
The poll reveals that Biden trails his Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, on major policy and personal comparisons. Particularly concerning is Biden’s more than 20-point deficit against Trump on the handling of the economy. Additionally, Biden’s disadvantage on handling immigration and the border exceeds 30 points.
Compared to the 2020 election, Biden’s advantage over Trump in terms of competence and effectiveness has reversed. Trump now holds a 16-point lead in this area.
Approval Rating Drops
The poll also indicates a decline in Biden’s approval rating, reaching its lowest level since he took office. Only 37% of respondents approve of his performance. Furthermore, fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
Considering these factors, the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup. Although within the poll’s margin of error, it represents a clear shift compared to previous years.
Biden’s Opportunity for Change
Despite the challenging numbers, there is some hope for Biden. According to Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, attitudes can shift between now and October 2024. Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions and improve his standing against Trump.
The NBC News poll was conducted in late January, after Trump won the presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. The survey also took place amidst positive economic news such as growing consumer confidence and job creation.
Biden’s Handling of the Economy
Despite the positive economic indicators, Trump maintains a significant advantage over Biden when it comes to handling the economy. The poll shows 55% of respondents believe Trump would do a better job, compared to 33% who prefer Biden. This represents a significant shift from October 2020 when Trump held only a 7-point advantage.
Although attitudes about the economy have improved since the previous poll, with fewer voters believing that it will worsen in the next year, Biden still struggles to catch up to Trump in this area.
Biden-Trump Rematch
In a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential contest, Trump currently leads Biden by 5 points among registered voters. This lead has increased from November’s 2-point advantage for Trump. Other recent polls, including CNN’s national survey and Bloomberg News and Morning Consult’s battleground-state polls, also reflect a similar trend.
Trump has the advantage among white people without college degrees, men, and independents. On the other hand, Biden leads among Black voters, women, and white people with college degrees. The two candidates are essentially tied among Latinos and voters aged 18-34.
Measuring Third Parties
When considering third-party candidates, Trump’s lead over Biden increases to 6 points. An unnamed Libertarian Party candidate receives 5% support, an unnamed Green Party candidate receives another 5%, and an unnamed No Labels candidate receives 4%.
Biden vs Haley
A hypothetical matchup between Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley shows Haley leading Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%.
Trump’s Dominance in the GOP Race
In the GOP presidential race, Trump is firmly in the lead, with a massive 60-point advantage over Haley among national GOP primary voters. Additionally, 61% of Republican voters believe that Trump should continue as the party’s leader.
Conclusion
President Biden faces significant challenges as he prepares for re-election. With a deficit on key issues, a decline in approval rating, and Trump’s lead in hypothetical matchups, Biden’s presidency seems to be in peril. However, there is still time for Biden to turn the tide and change voters’ perceptions before the 2024 election.
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