The latest national NBC News poll reveals an interesting shift in the hypothetical general-election matchup between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden among registered voters. While Trump leads Biden by 5 points, 47%-42%, in the initial ballot, the dynamics change when respondents are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year. In this scenario, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump, 45%-43%.
Impact on Key Voter Groups
The most pronounced shifts are evident among voter groups that strongly supported Biden in the 2020 election, but are now displaying some hesitation towards him as president. This includes younger voters, Latinos, and independents.
-
Younger Voters: On the original ballot, Biden and Trump are tied at 42% each among voters aged 18 to 34. However, when asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, younger voters break for Biden by a significant 15-point margin, 47%-32%.
-
Latinos: Initially, Trump had a slight lead among Latino voters, with 42% supporting him compared to 41% for Biden. However, the hypothetical question about Trump’s conviction leads to a shift in favor of Biden, with 45% supporting him and 35% supporting Trump.
-
Independents: Independents, who initially favored Trump by a 19-point lead, show a smaller 8-point advantage for Trump when considering the possibility of his conviction.
It is important to note that although these shifts seem significant, their real-life impact remains uncertain.
Cautious Interpretation
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, part of the bipartisan group of pollsters conducting the NBC News survey, provides a word of caution. McInturff emphasizes that the small number of voters (55 out of 1,000 interviews) who change their preference in response to the hypothetical scenario overwhelmingly hold negative opinions about Biden. These voters also prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by a substantial margin of over 60 points. Therefore, McInturff raises doubts about whether these voters would genuinely stick with Biden, even if Trump is convicted.
While the poll captures intriguing insights into potential voter sentiment, it is important to remember that hypothetical scenarios may not necessarily mirror the actual outcome.
For the complete NBC News poll results, conducted among 1,000 registered voters (867 contacted via cellphone) from January 26-30, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points, refer to the source link.
Read more on F5 Magazine – F5mag.com