Russia and China have joined forces in the Arctic, a move that holds significant implications for U.S. national security. As Russia grapples with the financial and diplomatic fallout from its war in Ukraine, it has turned to China to expand its foothold in the region. This collaboration marks a significant development in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical strategy and ambitions. A recent private intelligence report by Strider Intelligence sheds light on this growing partnership and its potential to counterbalance U.S.-led alliances.
Increasing Chinese Participation in the Arctic
Russia’s newfound willingness to involve China in Arctic affairs demonstrates the depth of their partnership and its ability to counter U.S. alliances. For many years, Russia actively excluded China and other non-Arctic nations from playing a role in the region. However, due to its increasing isolation and the suspension of cooperation by the other Arctic Council member countries, Russia has been compelled to seek partnerships with China.
Growing Economic Cooperation
An analysis by Strider Intelligence reveals a notable increase in Russia-China cooperation in various Arctic and Far East projects since 2013. This collaboration spans areas such as liquefied natural gas, mineral extraction, and infrastructure development. Additionally, trade between Russia and China through the Northern Sea Route, which connects Europe and Asia via the Arctic Ocean, is on the rise. In 2023 alone, at least 11 ships transported Russian crude oil to China using this route, compared to just one “trial” voyage in 2022.
Shifting Defense Spending
While Russia’s defense spending in the Arctic has stagnated, private commercial investment in the region continues to grow. The economic realities of its current situation have forced Russia to grant China unprecedented access to the Arctic. Russia is far ahead of the U.S. in terms of Arctic investment and development. The lack of prioritization of the Arctic by the U.S. is apparent, with only one functional icebreaker, built in the 1970s, compared to Russia’s substantial fleet.
Implications for U.S. National Security
The growing cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic raises concerns about U.S. national security. Members of the House Homeland Security Committee and expert witnesses have emphasized the need for the U.S. to bolster its presence in the region. They stress the importance of protecting national security interests, economic security, energy security, and environmental security. Failure to respond effectively could result in the West falling behind, risking Arctic security, and losing economic benefits to Russia and China.
In conclusion, the deepening alliance between Russia and China in the Arctic has far-reaching implications. As Russia seeks to expand its presence in the region, its partnership with China presents a significant challenge to U.S. interests. It is crucial for the West, NATO, and other Arctic stakeholders to adapt and counterbalance Russian actions in both Ukraine and the Arctic. By doing so, they can safeguard Arctic security and prevent economic benefits from slipping away to Russia and China.